An introduction to Forecast, Errors, Uncertainty in Models, and Forecast Correction

Following the link below, you can find  the presentation I gave at the Pensa Trasversale initiative. I talked about modelling and its uncertainty, and I had, obviously, in mind my experience as a hydro-geomorpho-logical modeler.
The last topic in the title, forecast correction, is not as deep investigated as I would have. But in writing I realised that I had to speak to High School Students.
The presentation is in Italian, but I can translate it in English if someone is interested.  In the case, I should do a further investment in making some parts more technical and add some examples.

The presentation can be found, as usual, on slideshare. A companion of the presentation, also in Italian, of this presentation can be this paper that I wrote more than twenty years ago about modelling, entitled: Introduction to the Mathematical Models of Environment.  I dedicated this small contribution to Sandro Marani with whom I discussed a lot the topic.

Water Scarcity

Water scarcity is a reality for large populations in the World, and several projects started to understand it and to provide solutions.

Also regions where water is usually abundant suffer the threats of climate change and could be subject and conflicts about waters uses.
Today I was informed of the Glowasis blog   where many information are collected on the subject.

Rivers in transitions

An editorial of Nature Geoscience to read.

"Rivers affect landscape structure and function to a much greater extent than might be expected from the fraction of the Earth's surface they cover. Rivers redistribute material as they flow, carving out canyons and building new land offshore. These morphological consequences of river flow are evident in any topographic map of the Earth's surface. ..."

Other links are also available at the page.

Browsing the same number also a commentary is available on the role of rivers, and a paper on river drainage patterns in New Zealand.

Guidelines for the Mapping of the Triggering of Landslides and Debris Flow

My studies on shallow landslides were not purely theoretical but directed to make safer the mountain environment in which I live. Therefore, since the beginning of my activities there was an effort to convert theoretical results into practical tools, which, in turn, helped research. These guidelines written for the Danube Flood Risk Project come with this attitude. The work was also supported by the IRASMOS EU Project and, more recently, from the Trento Province. While reading the guidelines themselves is probably the simplest way to approach the mapping of landslide triggering according to my perspective, I also make public the presentation that I gave last and this year on the subject.

The first presentation is an introduction to the subject of hydrological hazards in mountains areas and the topic of guidelines:



The second contains and comments some applications of the guidelines on catchments in Trentino.



All the operation seen (except for the very recent CI-SLAM model) can be reproduced using the tools in the Spatial Toolbox of uDig or using GEOtop.

References

Beven, K J and Kirkby, M J. 1979, A physically based variable contributing area model of basin hydrology Hydrol. Sci. Bull., 24(1),43-69

Beven, K, Rainfall-runoff modelling: the primer, Wiley, 2001

Borga, M., G. Dalla Fontana, F. Cazorzi, Analysis of topographic and climatic control on rainfall-triggered shallow landsliding using a quasi-dynamic wetness index, Jour. Hydrol., 268, 56-71, 2002
D’Odorico, P. and R. Rigon, Hillslope and channels contribution to the hydrologic response, Water Resour Res, 39(5) , 1-9, 2003

Lanni, C.; McDonnell, J. J.; Rigon, R., On the relative role of upslope and downslope topography for describing water flow path and storage dynamics: a theoretical analysis, Hydrological Processes Volume: 25 Issue: 25 Pages: 3909-3923, DEC 15 2011, DOI: 10.1002/hyp.8263

Lanni C., J. McDonnell JJ, Hopp L., Rigon R., "Simulated effect of soil depth and bedrock topography on near-surface hydrologic response and slope stability" in EARTH SURFACE PROCESSES AND LANDFORMS, v. 2012, (In press). - URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/esp.3267/abstract . - DOI: 10.1002/esp.3267

Lanni C., Borga M., Rigon R., and Tarolli P., Modelling catchment-scale shallow landslide occurrence by means of a subsurface flow path connectivity index, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 9, 4101-4134, www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci- discuss.net/9/4101/2012/ doi:10.5194/hessd-9-4101-2012, (in press at HESS)

Other papers and material about landslides can be found in this blog following the "Landslides" label.