Friday, October 26, 2012

An introduction to Forecast, Errors, Uncertainty in Models, and Forecast Correction

Following the link below, you can find  the presentation I gave at the Pensa Trasversale initiative. I talked about modelling and its uncertainty, and I had, obviously, in mind my experience as a hydro-geomorpho-logical modeler.
The last topic in the title, forecast correction, is not as deep investigated as I would have. But in writing I realised that I had to speak to High School Students.
The presentation is in Italian, but I can translate it in English if someone is interested.  In the case, I should do a further investment in making some parts more technical and add some examples.

The presentation can be found, as usual, on slideshare. A companion of the presentation, also in Italian, of this presentation can be this paper that I wrote more than twenty years ago about modelling, entitled: Introduction to the Mathematical Models of Environment.  I dedicated this small contribution to Sandro Marani with whom I discussed a lot the topic.


  1. Hi Prof. when you get time could you reflect your view about hydro geomorphology modeling uncertainty and error forecasting methods in more detail way. And also great if we could see the slides in english version.

  2. Yes, certainly. I will start with the translation of the slides. Give me a couple of weeks indeed.